The Tip of the Iceberg, Vol 1:
Responding to Crises and the Animals of change:
A visit to the Zoo

Chameleons and octopuses - the true masters of transformation
When giving talks and workshops on change management, I like to illustrate presentations with pictures of chameleons, the animal that most people think of first as an example of rapid adaptation to changing conditions. Squids and octopuses are less often thought of, which seems unfair, as they are much more changeable and defencible. Particularly noteworthy is the so-called mimic octopus, an octopus that not only changes colour, but can also change its shape and present itself as a sea snake, flounder or lionfish when danger threatens.

In addition to the true masters of adaptation, various disciplines (including finance and behavioural economics) use other examples from the animal kingdom to illustrate the phenomena of change and the reaction to unforeseen events (in society or in companies): The black swan, the grey rhinoceros or the elephant (in the room). Time for a visit to the zoo!

The black swan
A "black swan" is defined as a very rare, unlikely event that occurs completely unexpectedly and has significant negative consequences. Maintaining or developing defence measures or emergency plans for this is associated with disproportionately high costs. Companies deal with "black swans" as part of crisis management (ex post); ex ante they are the subject of probability theory. Examples include the coronavirus pandemic, the attacks 9/11, and the reactor accident in Fukushima.

We speak of genuine "black swans" when all known facts do not allow any conclusions to be drawn about a future risk and the actors are not aware that there could be unexpected events. On the other hand, false "black swans" occur when no one had the risk "on their radar", but the potential risk could have been recognised if the known facts had been analysed more closely, taking into account known behavioural patterns.

The grey rhino
In contrast to the unexpected "black swan", the "grey rhino" is "a very unlikely but neglected threat with a significant impact..." that has been overlooked or deliberately ignored despite its recognisability. The grey rhino is a slow but steady change that does not trigger any immediate pressure to act (a frequently cited example of this is climate change).

Michele Wucker coined this metaphor of the "grey rhino" to make it clear that so many things that go wrong in business, in politics or in our private lives are actually avoidable: We don't pay enough attention to the big obvious problems in front of us. We have the choice to do something about it or not - and usually decide in favour of doing nothing, often unconsciously. Michele Wucker cites several reasons for this: We make assumptions that make us see things more optimistically than we otherwise would. Our instincts make us deny things in order to protect ourselves from developments that frighten us. There are decision-making patterns that make it difficult for us to do the right thing.

Or we have the impression that we don't have the power to do something. The less power we feel, the less likely we are to do something. 

The elephant in the room
The elephant in the room stands for the topic behind the topic. Everyone knows it and sees it, but it is not seen and addressed together. The reasons for the silence can be manifold, for example the fear of personal disadvantages or the fear of hurting someone, breaking a taboo or generally disregarding unwritten rules. These issues are sometimes consciously, but often unconsciously and covertly, carried out through technically orientated but inconclusive discussions and thus form the "elephant in the room", i.e. the issue that is actually at stake, but which is not addressed.

What distinguishes elephants from rhinos: The elephant is not talked about and nothing is done about it - which is perceived by everyone as "without alternative". With rhinos, the need for action and the options are more readily recognised and, above all, named. 

What we can do to avoid encountering these animals in the office
The "black swan" never appears in predictions or statistics due to its rarity. This suppression cancels out the "black swan" event in expectations, so that the surprise effect is very high if it occurs "unexpectedly".

Preventive measures against "black swans" are usually disproportionately expensive, but emergency plans help to prepare for the (unlikely) worst-case scenario, to think through and plan situations and processes so that they take effect in an emergency (such as a fire alarm). At the same time, it also helps in corporate decision-making or planning processes to think together about what is not seen or possibly overlooked and to consciously learn from past "black swans".

The dangerous thing about grey rhinos is that the pressure to act only builds up very slowly and there is always a major problem in day-to-day business that needs to be dealt with first. As a result, the "grey rhino" keeps slipping off the agenda or you wait and tolerate developments or personal behaviour until it becomes "really acute" and complaints pile up.

Michele Wucker recommends carrying out regular reality checks for grey rhinos. This includes reviewing decision-making processes, evaluating critical events together as a team or approaching them from different directions, consciously seeking out sparring partners who tell you (unpleasant but helpful) truths. It is about establishing procedures that firstly help to recognise the rhino and secondly support you in taking action (instead of continuing to wait and see).

Open communication and established conflict resolution processes help against the elephant in the room. Teams should learn and experience how to avoid conflicts or, if they have already occurred, how to resolve them quickly - so that we don't encounter the animals of change in the office, but at best in the zoo.

Sources:
https://de.wikipedia.org/wiki/Schwarzer_Schwan

Jaye, Nathaniel: Behavioural Finance, Leadership, Management & Communication Skills, Risk Management, https://blogs.cfainstitute.org/investor/2017/10/23/do-gray-rhinos-pose-a-greater-threat-than-black-swans/

Taleb, Nassim Nicholas: The Black Swan - the power of highly improbable events

Wucker, Michele: "The Gray Rhino: How to Recognize and Act on the Obvious Dangers We Ignore."